Election latest: Reform candidate disowns party amid racism row - and backs Tories (2024)

By Matthew Thompson, political correspondent

The finish line is in sight. Most of us, politicians and journalists alike, have been on the road for weeks.

Batteries are running low. And yet, Sir Ed Davey's enthusiasm for hurling himself into the nearest body of water remains undimmed. The Lib Dems have a strategy, and they're sticking to it.

Which therefore begs the question: is that strategy actually working?

Such things are hard to measure. But polling data, as well as admittedly less scientific chats with the voting public, suggest it isn't exactly doing him any harm.

"I mean, it's entertaining," says Charlotte, watching Sir Ed prance around with a water noodle in the Cheltenham Lido.

"I don't know how much it really affects my political view, but he's likeable. He seems more relatable."

"I suppose it's a bit of fun really," says Joan, another onlooker. I ask her whether she rates the Lib Dems' chances of winning here, and she replies: "I’d like to think so, but I think possibly not."

According to Ipsos, a pollster that tracks party leader popularity, Sir Ed's personal satisfaction ratings have risen seven points since early June. 30% of people are satisfied with him, whilst 35% are not.

If a net satisfaction rating of -5 seems low, it's worth comparing it to others, with Sir Keir Starmer (-19) and Rishi Sunak (-55) lagging far behind.

The Lib Dems as a party also seem to be performing well, with seat predictions uniformly suggesting considerable gains on the 15 MPs they had before the election. Although this could easily be a function of Tory unpopularity as much as enthusiasm for the Lib Dems.

And speaking to journalists in Cheltenham today, a key Lib Dem target, Sir Ed said the party has expanded the number of seats it thinks are winnable, particularly in the South West of England.

His own constituency visits have suggested a similar pattern, with a trend towards visiting seats that would require larger swings to the Lib Dems.

So the mood on the big yellow bus is about as buoyant as Ed Davey in his customary life jacket. The stunts will keep coming.

But as politicians are fond of repeating, there's only one poll that counts. And there are still four days to go.

Both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer have made various claims about the state of the UK's economy and their plans to change that.

But Sky's economics and data editor Ed Conway has fact-checked one of the Labour leader's pre-election claims about "British people falling behind".

"I'm not comfortable with a trajectory that will soon see Britain overtaken by Poland," Mr Starmer said last year.

So will Poland's economy soon overtake the UK's?

Not quite.

When considering both countries' GDP per capita, Poland's economy is indeed growing at a faster rate than the UK's at the moment.

"If you just assume that those lines continue as they have been for the last 10 years,Poland [will have] overtaken the UK [by 2030]. That is the point that Keir Starmer is making," Ed says.

"But here's the thing. You can't really treat economics like this because fast-growing frontier economies don't always maintain their growth rate. You can't always assume that that's going to continue as it was before."

Forecasts from the International Monetary Fund show that while the gap between both countries is narrowing, the UK is still 8% bigger in terms of GDP per capita than Poland by the end of the decade.

Using the same logic that the Labour leader is, Poland would overtake the US as the world's wealthiest economy by 2050 - a claim Ed calls "ridiculous".

"That is the mathematical trick that's being played in order to make it seem like the UK is falling behind. And it's just one of the tricks that we've seen in this long election campaign."

As we reported earlier, a group of students from the Warwick University Conservatives Association have been condemned for an "utterly abhorrent" video in which they sing a Nazi marching song.

The clip, taken at a chairman's dinner at the Warwick Conservatives Association two weeks ago, shows members singing "Erika" - a song used by the SS and the armed forces of Nazi Germany (read more on the story here).

In a statement, the Union of Jewish Students condemned the "blatant and unchallenged support for Nazism".

We asked the Conservative Party for a response to the video - and a spokesman told us that the group "is not affiliated to the Conservative Party".

He added: "There is no place for racism in the Conservative Party and wewill always ensure appropriate action is taken against any member who acts in ways that are not in accordance with our values of tolerance and respect."

The spokesman did not say if the party has launched an investigation to determine if anyone seen in the clip is a party member.

Our live poll tracker collates the results of opinion surveys carried out by all the main polling organisations - and allows you to see how the political parties are performing in the run-up to the general election.

With under a week to go, the Tories and Labour have taken a drop, while support for Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats is on the rise.

Read more about the trackerhere.

Since Rishi Sunak called the election, Sky News' Politics Hub has been looking back over memorable moments from campaigns gone by.

FromDavid Cameron's football own goal, to an upstartNick Cleggemerging as the unlikely victor from the UK's first televised leaders debate, there were plenty to choose from.

We've collated them all here for you to reminisce on - and a fair warning, given the fine weather we've had this week, one might leave you craving some ice cream…

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is addressing his party's rally in Birmingham now.

Entering the stage to chants of his name - and fireworks - Mr Farage says Reform UK is a party that believes in "having fun and enjoying life".

He explains how at "very short notice" he decided to become leader of the party.

"I simply could not stand aside."

Mr Farage refers to "slippery Sunak", and Sir Keir Starmer, who he says doesn't know how to lead the UK in difficult times.

"Keir Starmer has the charisma of a damp rag," the Reform UK leader says.

He also claims the BBC has "abused its power" as the national broadcaster, to loud applause from those in the room.

Mr Farage says he will campaign to abolish the licence fee.

By Josephine Franks, news reporter

When the polling stations close at 10pm on 4 July, thousands of ballot counters will be flexing their fingers, ready for what could be a very long night's work.

All the country's votes will be counted - and recounted - by hand.

But what is it like to be one of the people tasked with delivering democracy by dawn?

Sky News spoke to five ballot counters - who between them have worked more than 100 elections - to find out...

Rishi Sunak has said he still believes he will win the general election.

Asked by the BBC whether he thought he would still be prime minister on Friday, he replied: "Yes. I'm fighting very hard and I think people are waking up to the real danger of what a Labour government means."

Polls have almost consistently shown that the Tories are 20 points behind Labour.

Mr Sunak also hit back at what he claimed was a "declinist narrative" when asked whether it was a mistake to change course on net zero.

BBC presenter Laura Kuenssberg pointed out that some people, including the independent climate change committee, believe the UK has lost its status as a leader on the issue.

The broadcaster also said there was "plenty of evidence" that the economic reality of Brexit is that Britain's standing long-term is "more challenging".

Asked whether he thought the shift was a mistake, the prime minister appeared frustrated as he said: "No, and actually you started that question with something that I fundamentally disagree with: 'Because of Brexit, we've lost our standing in the world'."

Told that was not what she had said, he replied: "You said we've lost our standing in the world. That's completely and utterly wrong."

Mr Sunak cited Britain building new nuclear submarines with Australia and the United States, and the negotiation of the Windsor Framework with the EU and support for Ukraine.

He claimed that "people are queuing up to work with us because they respect what we do".

"So I just completely reject that, it's entirely wrong, this kind of declinist narrative that people have of the UK I wholeheartedly reject."

Hats in support of Donald Trump and Union Flag jackets were spotted at the Reform UK rally at the NEC in Birmingham this afternoon.

Dozens of people have gathered to watch Reform UK leader Nigel Farage address the major campaign event, bidding for votes ahead of Thursday's election.